Nonlinear predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from nonparametric and threshold models

Recent empirical evidence suggests that stock market returns are predictable from a variety of financial and macroeconomic variables. However, with two exceptions this predictability is based upon a linear functional form. This paper extends this research by considering whether a nonlinear relationship exists between stock market returns and these conditioning variables, and whether this nonlinearity can be exploited for forecast improvements. General nonlinearities are examined using a nonparametric regression technique, which suggest possible threshold behaviour. This leads to estimation of a smooth-transition threshold type model, with the results indicating an improved insample performance and marginally superior out-of-sample forecast results. D 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G12; G13